Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Changing Our Minds

Michael Lewis's latest book "The Undoing Project - A Friendship That Changed Our Minds" is currently on several national best selling lists.  Lewis's wildly popular book (and movie,) "Moneyball" was about making choices in a systematic, mathematical way.  In "Moneyball" it was about using data to choose baseball players rather than the traditional scouting method.

A really hard sell.  I think it's because we are just way more comfortable with our old ways of thinking and feeling.  It's hard work and scary to gather data and be objective.

"The Undoing Project" is, essentially about a friendship and collaboration of two psychologists that produced some new ideas about decision making.  I want to share three of the many concepts in this book because I think they are spot on!

Hindsight - to overestimate the probability that things will turn out the way they have.  "We've always done it this way."

Endowment - We tend to overvalue what we already possess only because we possess it.  For example, when we start to downsize we think we're gonna make a fortune on the coin set, the paintings, the antique desk, etc., before we accept the hard, sad truth.

Availability - to overestimate the frequency of items we happen to be able to summon to mind easily.  

I'm getting ready to lead a series of classes with other oldies (like me) and I know that these three concepts really impact this exciting time of life as we continue to gear up for what lies ahead.  The bottom line is we need to gather some hard data and be willing to change our minds before taking the next step.


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