Sunday, December 2, 2007

Predictions

I heard the first Advent sermon this morning on "Preparing." It was to remind us that we need to prepare for things we know are going to happen but we don't know when.

There are always people around predicting when stuff will happen. They're almost always wrong.

Another hurricane season is behind us. Despite dire predictions, Florida has been relatively hurricane free for the last three years.

One of our big hotel tycoons threatened to sue the National Weather Service over the predictions. Bad for business.

Not unlike predicting the stock market, predicting hurricanes is tricky. This past year one of our local columnist did his own study.

His panel consisted of:

  • Meteorologist and Hurricane Expert William Gray (who has traditionally scared the bejeebers out of us)
  • A monkey from the local zoo
  • His 4 year old son
  • Himself

As there were several categories the results were mixed. But they were all consistently wrong.

I guess the lesson from the columnist and the minister are the same. We know some things are going to happen but we don't know when. So let's try to be ready all the time.

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